Do NOT expect a new online poker boom
Now that I have found a home for my Fantasy Sport fix on DailyFantasyStrategy, I’m going to take this blog back to what is should be, a poker and life blog. Onto my re-opening topic:
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Do NOT expect a new online poker boom!
The powers that be are aligning themselves after the DOJ cleared its view on the Wire Act (but pertaining to lotteries) to finally embrace online poker and the railbirds are chirping, wondering, speculating, arguing and discussing what the future of online poker will and should look like. Well I can tell you one thing, there will be no new poker boom.
Why?
This change is going to happen slowly, very slowly, OK not pre-internet slow, but slow for the rapid pace we are on now. We have seen the seeds of change planted in Nevada (Nevada Gaming Commission Proposed Regulations for Interactive Gaming) and the District of Columbia. Some rumblings that states like Iowa and New Jersey are not far behind.
Bills will we written, rejected, debated, rewritten, rinse-repeat until everyone agrees a form of online poker will be passed in THEIR STATE. And then once the rules, licences, and platforms are up and running, such gambling will only happen within the respective state(s) (through state IP addresses.) As it’s been speculated, and seems quite logical, there is another well established industry of gambling that states may align themselves when it comes to this new online poker market, the state lottery systems.
The first state-run lotteries were established in the 60s, factually 1964 by the State of New Hampshire and then followed by New York in 1967. The first US joint lottery formed in 1985 and the bigger lotteries, ie MegaMillions and Powerball, weren’t formed till the late 1990s. Many, like U.S. Digital Gaming‘s Chairman, Richard D. Bronson agree that online poker will take this route:
Richard Bronson Discusses DOJ Wire Act Ruling on CNBC from Mark Rivers on Vimeo.
You can read a recent interview with Richard Bronson here on PokerNews: Click Here and I suggest reading “The Bronson Bulletin” as well.
So what does all this mean?
There will not be a “Boom”, it will be more like a snowball, a slow moving snowball, to get any resemblance to what online once was. Let’s hope you live in a state that will jump on board once the forces of online poker convince the lottery forces that online poker will be good, not bad for them. Hopefully online poker promoters can convince governors like Martin O’Malley of Maryland (Maryland Governor Opposes Online Poker to Protect Lottery) that future lotter sales could be great when teamed with online poker. Just think, MegaMillions reaches 240million and you can buy a $1 ticket in a click:
It will take some time but It’s going to be a fun ride!
January 25th, 2012 at 5:38 PM
Well, isn’t “a slow moving snowball” gaining size and force as it rolls a more accurate description of the early stages of the first poker “boom,” anyway?
January 25th, 2012 at 6:34 PM
Do you feel Reid will still push for a Federal bill if too many states feel they can operate independently? It seems that pressure only leaves a few month window in 2012 for Reid to act before this wave passes him by and it’s too little, too late for a national network. I agree that having the “patchwork” of regulations isn’t really ideal, but perhaps it will lead to a strange form of competition among states and result in a better outcome, even though it may take a couple extra years. Either way, it will be an exciting sweat for 2012!
January 25th, 2012 at 8:55 PM
Hi Andrew,
Sort of, yes, but my point is things will happen slowly and be difficult for a while. There will be battles of regulation, money, and jurisdiction; it will take time for states to join the ‘snowball’.
Thanks for your comment,
Joe
January 25th, 2012 at 8:57 PM
Hi Drew,
I do feel Reid will try to push something through again. However, I do not think it will be successful. Many years ago they tried to push federal regulation of lotteries through and it failed.
The states are too broke and those that get any legislation in place to open online poker are going to try to keep the money, decisions, and power to themselves. At least until they see fit to join other states to expand a win-win. But this again, will turn down regulation on a federal level.
Thanks you for your question,
Joe
January 25th, 2012 at 9:08 PM
Hey Joe,
What are you thought on what will happen when poker gets legalizes if Zynga moves to real money somehow?
You dont expect a pokerboom there?
January 25th, 2012 at 9:14 PM
Hi Jens!
Hope all is well!
As for Zynga, they seem to have changed their stance a bit recently on real money games but there are many hurdles for them to overcome. Check out this recent article here:
http://allthingsd.com/20120120/zynga-confirms-it-is-seeking-partners-for-online-gambling-initiatives/?mod=googlenews
Obtaining licences in each state that finally approves online poker for operation on Facebook is bound to have some issues before they could become a online poker superpower. Facebook would have to approve of it, first of all, which brings up all sorts of brand issues as now Facebook would be a gambling platform. That’s all FB would need is some out-of-touch state like, Washington, banning all Facebook users in their state since they oppose any form of online gambling.
-Joe
February 8th, 2012 at 3:28 PM
Merci pour cet article fort utile. Je fait un feedback!
March 23rd, 2012 at 8:09 AM
Hey Joe,
Good blog, I really enjoy your posts.
You say that ‘There will not be a “Boom”, it will be more like a snowball, a slow moving snowball, to get any resemblance to what online once was.’
Also you talk about state lotteries and how slow they were to move across the U.S.
I think it’s inaccurate to suggest that online poker in the U.S would have such a relatively low pace of progress as state lotteries did. First of all the demand for online poker & the player base for online poker already exists. You say yourself that the states are too broke citing this as a reason as to why federal legislation won’t happen – Surely if the states are so broke they’ll be pushing this very hard in order to gain as much momentum as fast as possible? And as for the consumers, do you have any reason to suggest a lack of demand on their part?
Lottery & Gambling was comparatively unexplored back then, so I disagree that it would be’a slow moving snowball’ and I predict it’ll be huge and fairly speedy once the first few states get on board.
March 24th, 2012 at 7:48 AM
Earlier this year, there were several States in position to regulate online poker (Iowa most notability) and now the Iowa bill has been shot down. This is just one example of how hard and long it is to put regulation in place.
Nevada will be first, by the end of this year, and then other states will slowly follow next year.
It’s going to take time.